--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2023-12-07 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC070608_C_KWBC_20231207060911_29163664-9305-TWDAT.txt ****0000007825**** AXNT20 KNHC 070608 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Dec 7 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning... A primary cold front curves southwestward from east of Bermuda across 31N62W across the Turk and Caicos Islands to beyond the eastern tip of Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 100 nm east of this front. A secondary cold front extends southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N67W across the northwest Bahamas to beyond the Florida Keys. Widely scattered showers are noted near this second boundary. Near-gale to gale- force winds are occurring near and just east of the primary cold front north of 28N between 60W and 64W, and behind the secondary cold front north of 28N between 67W and 74W. Seas in these areas range from 12 to 17 ft. These fronts are expected to merge on Thursday while moving southeastward toward the central Atlantic. As a result, these winds and seas will shift eastward into the central Atlantic through Thursday afternoon. As the combined front pulls farther eastward and weakens, conditions should begin to improve Thursday night. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea border, then extends southwestward to 05N20W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N20W across 03N35W to 05N48W. No significant convection is found near the trough. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 200 nm north, and 70 nm south of the ITCZ west of 32W. Strong westerly upper-level flow is streaming thick cirrus from convection related to the ITCZ across the tropical Atlantic and Cabo Verde Islands to the Africa coast. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The tail end of a cold front runs westward from near the Florida Keys to the central Gulf. A surface trough extends northwestward from a 1011 mb low southeast of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico across the western Bay of Campeche to beyond Tampico. Scattered showers are occurring near these features across the west-central and southern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits. Fresh ENE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, a 1027 mb high over Texas/Louisiana is building southeastward into the northern Gulf behind the cold front. As gradient between the high and the trough gradually decrease Thursday morning, winds across the southern half of the Gulf will diminish. Once this high has shifted eastward into the Atlantic Thursday night, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected for most of the basin Fri through Sat. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf Sat evening, then reach from Tampa Bay, Florida to Cancun, Mexico Sun evening before exiting the basin by Mon morning. Strong to near-gale force winds are anticipated behind the front, with gale force winds possible in the west-central and southwestern Gulf Sat night through Sun evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front stretches west-southwestward from the easter tip of Cuba across the Gulf of Honduras to southern Belize. Widely scattered showers are evident near and up to 60 nm north of this feature. A trade-wind regime continues for the remainder of the basin. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist at the northwestern basin, behind the cold front including the lee of Cuba. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas dominate the south-central basin, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, the front will reach from the northern coast of Hispaniola to the northern coast of Honduras Thursday night, where it will remain nearly stationary through Saturday. Fresh with locally strong NE winds will persist across much of the northwestern basin. Strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage Thursday afternoon near the front and then expand across most of the central and eastern basin by Sat. By late Sun, the majority of these winds are expected to be over the central basin. Looking ahead, the next cold front could enter the northwest Caribbean Sea by early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about an ongoing Gale Warning. Besides the two cold fronts and their associated weather mentioned in the Special Features section, a surface trough just east of Barbados is causing widely scattered moderate convection from 09N to 15N between 50W and 58W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Gale Warning areas, fresh to strong SW to NW winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are present near the cold fronts from 25N to 28N between 50W and the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh with locally strong NW to N winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are noted from the northwest Bahamas northward west of 74W. Farther south, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen from 18N to 25N between 50W and the Greater Antilles/northern Leeward Islands. For the central and eastern Atlantic, a large 1021 mb high is supporting gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to S to SW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas north of 18N between the Africa coast and 50W, including the Canary Islands. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate northerly swell exist from 08N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 30W. Farther west, moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are found from 05N to 18N between 30W and the Windward Islands. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds with seas of 3 to 6 ft in gentle to moderate northerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the merged front mentioned in the Special Features section will reach from near 31N48W to the northern coast of Hispaniola Thu evening. Gale force winds and high seas are expected both ahead of and behind this front, to the north of 28N through late Thu afternoon. The gale winds will shift east of 55W Thu afternoon. The front will stall and weaken along 20N Fri through Sat as strong high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. The gradient between the strong high pressure along 31N and lower pressure associated with the stalled front will induce fresh to strong ENE trade winds south of 23N Fri through Sun. On Sun, the front will dissipate as fresh to strong southerly flow sets up over the waters east of northeast Florida to 69W in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to move into the offshore waters of Florida late Sun, followed by fresh to strong W to NW winds. Seas will build both east and west of this cold front. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC071800_C_KWBC_20231207180116_18153532-1106-TWDAT.txt ****0000008137**** AXNT20 KNHC 071800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Dec 07 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning... A first Atlantic Ocean cold front now passes through 31N55W, to 26N60W 20N70W, through NW Haiti and Jamaica, to the Gulf of Honduras. A second cold front is about 210 nm to the north and northwest of the first cold front. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to widely scattered strong, are to the northwest of the line 31N51W 23N60W 20N66W. Expect: gale-force SW winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet to 16 feet, from 29N northward between the first cold front and the line 31N50W 29N55W. A second area of importance is: gale-force W to NW winds, and sea heights that will range from 12 feet to 18 feet in NW swell, from 29N northward between the first front and 60W. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshores Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W, to 05N22W 04N26W 03N30W 04N43W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 02N to 06N between 39W and 44W. An upper level trough extends from a 25N17W cyclonic circulation center, to 14N30W and 14N60W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 03N to 15N between 44W and 62W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 20N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An east-to-west oriented cold front is along 23N, passing along the NW coast of Cuba, to 23N89W in the south central Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough passes through the NW part of Guatemala and the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, to 21N97W along the coast of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, cover the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are in the southern half of the Gulf. Slight seas are in the northern half of the Gulf. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the SE and south central sections. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Strong high pressure centered over the southeastern United States dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail today. The high pressure will shift eastward into the Atlantic tonight, inducing moderate to locally fresh return flow across most of the basin Fri through Sat. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. The front will reach from Cedar Key, Florida to Cancun, Mexico Sun evening, and exit the basin by Mon morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected behind the front, with gale force winds possible across the western Gulf, from offshore southern Texas southward to the Bay of Campeche Sat night through Sun evening. Strong NW gales to near storm-force winds are possible offshore Veracruz Sun afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through NW Haiti and Jamaica, to the Gulf of Honduras. Mostly fresh to some strong northerly winds are from the cold front northward from 80W westward. Strong NE winds are within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 77W. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 150 nm to 210 nm of the coast of Colombia. Fresh NE winds are in the rest of the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate and fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. The comparatively highest sea heights, 8 feet, are off the coast of Colombia near 11N75W. Moderate seas are in the offshore waters of Central America from the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea to the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 63W/64W, from 18N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N between 60W and 70W. This trough has been moving westward during the last few days, from the Atlantic Ocean into the SE Caribbean Sea. Shallow patches of moisture are supporting isolated showers throughout the area. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 75W, westward, beyond western Panama and southern Costa Rica. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N southward from 73W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that ended at 07/1200 UTC, are: 1.18 in Trinidad, and 0.24 in Bermuda, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. A cold front extends from the Windward Passage to the Gulf of Honduras. The front will reach from the N coast of Hispaniola to the Gulf of Honduras tonight, where it will remain nearly stationary through Fri night before dissipating Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds N of the front across the northwest Caribbean will diminish slightly late today. However, strong winds will develop in the Windward Passage this afternoon with the front and expand across most of the east and central Caribbean, lasting from tonight through Sun. By late Sun, the majority of these winds are expected to be over the central Caribbean. Looking ahead, the next cold front could enter the northwest Caribbean by early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Atlantic Ocean cold front, and the accompanying gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas. A surface ridge is along 33N13W, to a 31N24W 1026 mb high pressure center, to a 27N41W 1020 mb high pressure center, to 27N40W and 19N62W. Fresh to strong NW winds are from 65W westward. Strong or faster winds are to the north of the line 31N39W 25N50W 23N65W. Mostly fresh to some strong NE winds are from 20N to 27N from 27W eastward; and from 20N southward between 30W and 55W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Rough to very rough seas are to the north of the line 31N36W 27N49W 25N58W 24N70W 24N75W. Moderate to rough seas are from 05N to 15N between 39W and 60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from near 31N55W to the Windward passage. A secondary cold front trails it, extending from 31N58W to the central Bahamas. The secondary front will speed up and merge with the first front by late today. The main front will reach from near 25N55W to the N coast of Hispaniola this evening. Gale force winds and high seas are expected both ahead of and behind this front, to the north of 29N between 55W and 60W through late this afternoon. The gale winds will shift east of 60W by this afternoon. The front will stall and weaken along 20N Fri through Sat as strong high pressure builds across the western Atlantic. The gradient between the strong high pressure along 31N and lower pressure associated with the stalled front will induce fresh to strong NE to E trade winds south of 23N Fri through Sun. On Sun, the front will dissipate as fresh to strong southerly flow sets up over the waters east of northeast Florida to about 70W in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to move into the NW forecast waters late Sun, followed by fresh to strong northwest winds. Seas will build both east and west of this cold front. $$ mt/gr ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC072305_C_KWBC_20231207230518_29163664-9355-TWDAT.txt ****0000006966**** AXNT20 KNHC 072305 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Dec 8 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Atlantic Ocean Swell... A cold front extends from 31N50W to 23N65W to Dominican Republic. Convection associated with this front has diminished today. Gales on both sides of the boundary have now lifted N of 31N, leaving a zone of strong SW winds E of the front N of 26N and W of 40W, and strong NW winds W of the front N of 28W and E of 50W. This winds should continue to gradually decreasing from S to N tonight. However, a broad area of rough seas exist in mainly NW swell generated from the earlier gales. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are present N of 25N between 40W and 70W. These seas will slowly decay, but some areas S of 31N will continue to experience seas in excess of 12 ft through at least Fri night. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ continues from 06N16W to 05N24W to 03N30W to 04N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 34W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front has moved SE of the area this afternoon. A surface trough is noted in the western Bay of Campeche about 60 nm offshore, extending NW to just S of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the SW Gulf of Mexico in association with this trough. High pressure generally prevails across the remainder of the basin. Winds are generally gentle and easterly, although moderate E winds prevail in and near the Florida Straits. Moderate SE flow is also increasing in the NW Gulf, N of 23N and W of 95W. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the northern Gulf and 3 to 5 ft in the southern Gulf. Seas locally to 6 ft are ongoing in the Florida Straits. For the forecast, high pressure will shift eastward into the Atlantic tonight, inducing moderate to locally fresh return flow across most of the basin Fri through Sat. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. The front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico by Sun morning, and from near Fort Myers, Florida to Ne Yucatan peninsula Sun night, and exit the basin by Mon morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected behind the front, with gale force winds possible across the western Gulf, from offshore southern Texas southward to the Bay of Campeche Sat night through Sun evening. Strong NW gales to near storm-force winds are possible offshore Veracruz Sun afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak cold front extends from Dominican Republic to Honduras. Scattered moderate convection associated with this front is noted along the coast of Honduras. Moderate to fresh NE winds are behind the front, with locally strong winds the the Windward Passage extending S to offshore eastern Jamaica. Seas behind the front are 4 to 7 ft, highest in the Windward Passage. In the eastern basin, a surface trough is noted along 64W from S of the Virgin Islands to just N of Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection is noted E of this trough over the SE Caribbean and adjacent Windward Islands. To the E of the aforementioned cold front, moderate to fresh trades dominate in the central, eastern, and SW basin. Strong winds are pulsing offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 4 to 7 ft, except 8 ft where the strong winds are noted in the southern basin. For the forecast, the front will remain nearly stationary through Fri while weakening. Fresh to strong NE winds W of the front across the northwest Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras, will diminish by tonight. Pulsing fresh to locally strong NE winds are expected in the Windward Passage through Sat. Strengthening high pressure N of area will bring an increase in the aerial extent of the fresh to strong trade winds during the upcoming weekend, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. Looking ahead, the next cold front could enter the northwest Caribbean on Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for details about very rough seas in the central Atlantic. A cold front extends from near 31N50W to Dominican Republic. W of the front, moderate to fresh N winds gradually diminish to light to gentle N of 25N and W of 75W, as high pressure centered over the SE U.S. builds into the NW waters. E of the front, a ridge axis, associated with high pressure centered near the Canary Islands, extends SW to just N of the Leeward Islands, inducing a corridor of light to gentle winds N of a line from 31N20W to 18N60W. To the S of this axis, moderate to fresh trades dominate. A large area of NW swell is leading to seas of greater than 8 ft N of a line from 31N20W to 25N50W to 20N72W. W of the these rough seas, 5 to 7 ft seas extend N of the Bahamas and continue to the near the SE U.S. coast. To the S of the rough seas, 4 to 7 ft seas dominate, except for a zone of 6 to 8 ft S of 10N between 35W and South America, where the highest tradewinds are observed. Most of the basin is dry, but an area of scattered moderate convection exists within 300 nm E of the Windward Islands, in the vicinity of a mid and upper level trough. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will become stationary along 21N by Sat. Strengthening high pressure N of area will push the front farther south on Sun reaching the northern Leeward Islands as a dissipating front. The gale force winds and high seas associated with the front are shifting E of area. The gradient between the strong high pressure along 31N and lower pressure associated with the stalled front will induce fresh to strong NE to E trade winds south of 23N Fri through Sun. On Sun, fresh to strong southerly flow will set up over the waters east of northeast Florida to about 70W in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to move into the NW forecast waters late Sun, followed by fresh to strong northwest winds. Seas will build both east and west of this cold front. $$ Konarik ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################