--------------------------------------------------------------------------- TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION (NORTH ATLANTIC AREA) MESSAGES T1T2: AX A1A2: NT Date: 2024-04-26 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC260000_C_KWBC_20240426000044_31391944-1237-TWDAT.txt ****0000006254**** AXNT20 KNHC 260000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Resent NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Apr 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Possible Strong Thunderstorms and Heavy Downpours In Hispaniola: A persistent surface trough extends southwestward from near 30N61W across eastern Dominican Republic to near 16N70W. This feature maintains a very moist southerly flow across Hispaniola, while strong divergent winds aloft persist across much of the Caribbean Sea. This combination will remain conducive for strong thunderstorm activity over and near Hispaniola through Friday. These strong thunderstorms are capable of producing heavy downpours, increasing the chance for flash flooding, especially in hilly terrains and low-lying areas. Please refer to local weather service offices for more details on this event. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea Bissau and Guinea, then runs southwestward to 08N17W. An ITCZ continues from 08N17W through 01N30W to north of Sao Luis, Brazil at 01S45W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found up to 200 nm north, and 100 nm south of the ITCZ. No significant convection is seen near the monsoon trough. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1021 mb high at the northeastern Gulf to near Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to locally strong NE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found near the northern Yucatan Peninsula, at the eastern Bay of Campeche and northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas exist at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf beginning tonight, causing fresh to strong E to SE winds to spread across the entire Gulf through Sun night. Seas will build to 10 ft in the northwestern Gulf on Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to between fresh and strong near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about the potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy downpours in Hispaniola. Convergent winds north of an equatorial trough are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the northern Panama coast, and the Providence and Santa Catalina Islands. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are present at the south-central basin, near the ABC Islands and Windward Passage. Gentle ENE to E winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft exist south of Hispaniola and near the Cayman Islands. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, a 1022 mb Bermuda High near 29N72W will sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, including the Windward Passage through Fri. By Fri evening, further strengthening of the high will also introduce fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about the potential for strong thunderstorms and heavy downpours in Hispaniola. A persistent surface trough extends southwestward from near 30N61W to beyond the eastern Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate convection is seen near and up to 50 nm west, and 150 nm east of the trough axis. An upper-level trough reaches southward from an upper low near 27N33W to 06N37W. Widely scattered moderate convection is present near the low from 24N to 29N between 27W and 33W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up farther southeast, north of the Cabo Verde Islands from 20N to 24N between the Western Sahara coast and 24W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted at the central Atlantic north of 20N between 30W and 45W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate north of 25N between the northwestern Africa coast and 20W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are seen north of 20N between the Africa and Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NNW to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist from 04N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 40W. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades with 4 to 7 ft seas are present. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate S swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front exiting the southeast U.S. coast will merge with the aforementioned persistent surface trough late Fri. This cold front will reach from 31N58W to eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by Sun morning, then stall and weaken into a trough over the central Atlantic late Sun through Mon night. N swell behind the front will build seas to between 8 and 11 ft over most of the waters northeast of the Bahamas by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong N to NE winds from late Fri through Sun. By late Sun, these winds are expected to be at mainly fresh south of 29N and west of 60W. At the same time, fresh to strong W to NW winds and building seas are anticipated north of 27N between 35W and 45W. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC260545_C_KWBC_20240426054553_21954772-1151-TWDAT.txt ****0000006571**** AXNT20 KNHC 260545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Apr 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W, to 03N20W, 01N25W, through the Equator along 30W, to 01S37W. Precipitation: scattered strong is from 06N southward between the ITCZ and 32W, and from 03N southward between 44W and the coast of South America. Scattered to numerous strong is from 01N southward from 03W eastward, and from 01N southward between 14W and 16W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 29N85W. Moderate seas are from 90W westward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 180 nm of the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, and from 21N to 28N between 93W and 97W. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are in the rest of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle winds are within 180 nm of the coast from Florida to Mississippi, in the eastern half of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere in the eastern half of the area. A ridge across the Gulf region is allowing for gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh SE winds over the western Gulf. The pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf beginning tonight resulting in increasing east to southeast fresh to strong winds over just about the entire basin through Sun night. Seas will build to 10 ft in the NW Gulf on Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is along 22N67W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the easternmost parts of the Dominican Republic, to 16N70W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 480 nm on either side of the line that runs from 20N69W to the coast of Panama near 09N82W. It is possible that continual amounts of rain may help to increase the chances for flash flooding in inland areas, especially in hilly terrain and low- lying areas. Please, refer to bulletins from your local weather service offices for more details about this event. A surface trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, beyond 07N80W in the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in Colombia and Venezuela from 06N to 10N between 71W and 78W. Rough seas are from 10N to 12N between 75W and 78W, off the coasts of Colombia and Panama. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 16N southward between 70W and 80W. Moderate seas are from 16N southward between 67W and 70W, and elsewhere from 66W eastward. Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are within 180 nm of the coast of South America between 66W and 78W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds cover much of the rest of the area. High pressure north of the Greater Antilles is sustaining fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, including the Windward Passage. By late Fri, strengthening of the high pressure will also force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along 31N62W 22N67W, through the easternmost parts of the Dominican Republic, to 16N70W in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 390 nm to the east of the trough, and within 270 nm to the west of the trough, in the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh NE winds are 21N to 27N between the surface trough and the SE Bahamas. A 1013 mb low pressure center is near 20N38W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 18N to 23N between 33W and 41W. Moderate to rough seas have been from 18N northward between 30W and 50W. Moderate seas have been in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 18N northward from 45W eastward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 27N31W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 20N to 30N between 25W and 35W. Fresh to strong NE winds are to the north of 19N48W 21N40W 25N30W 22N17W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 25N southward between 45W and 60W. Moderate SE winds are from 25N northward between 50W and 60W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front that is presently northwest of the area will merge with a frontal trough that extends from 31N61W to eastern Dominican Republic late on Fri. The cold front will reach from near 31N58W to 26N65W to eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by Sun morning, then stall and weaken into a trough over the far southeastern part late Sun through Mon night. North swell behind the front will build seas to 8 to 11 ft over most of the area northeast of the Bahamas by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the front from late Fri through Sun. By late Sun, these winds are expected to be at mainly fresh speeds south of 29N and west of 60W. At that time, fresh to strong west to northwest winds are expected over the far northeast forecast waters along with building seas. Rather tranquil conditions are expected Tue and Tue night as high pressure becomes centered over the NW part of the offshore waters, with the induced gradient supporting fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds over the southern waters. $$ mt/ja ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC261124_C_KWBC_20240426112554_21954772-1166-TWDAT.txt ****0000007301**** AXNT20 KNHC 261124 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Apr 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, and extends south-southwestward to 06N17W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N24W and to just south of the Equator at 01S38W. along 30W, to 01S37W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 330 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W-33W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 17W-20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed over the NE Gulf at 29N85W. Its associated broad ridging covers the eastern and central Gulf. A tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure with relatively lower pressure over the western Gulf and inland Mexico and Texas has helped to increase east to southeast winds over the western Gulf to fresh to strong speeds. Mostly fresh east to southeast winds are over the central Gulf and gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are over the eastern Gulf. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft over the NW and w-central Gulf, 4 to 6 ft over the central Gulf and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure over the area is supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the eastern Gulf, mostly fresh east to southeast winds over the central Gulf and fresh to strong southeast winds over the western Gulf. The pressure gradient will continue to tighten resulting in increasing east to southeast fresh to strong winds over just about the entire basin through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak 11 to 12 ft in the NW Gulf Sat night and Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from near 15N70W northward to across the eastern portion of the Dominican Republic continuing farther north well into the Atlantic basin. Overcast to broken multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over most of the central section of the Caribbean and over most of the island of Hispaniola. There is a possibility for heavy rainfall that may result from thunderstorm activity over portions of Hispaniola today, especially in hilly terrain and low-lying areas. Please refer to bulletins from your local weather service offices for more details on shower and thunderstorm activity. Overnight ASCAT data shows generally depicts fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds over the south-central section of the sea. Moderate to fresh trade winds are over the rest of the sea, except for fresh northeast winds in the lee of Cuba between 77W and 82W as seen in overnight ASCAT. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea is sustaining fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, including the Windward Passage. By this evening, strengthening of the high pressure will also force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal trough is analyzed from 31N61W to 24N66W and to the eastern part of the Dominican Republic, while a cold front is approaching the NW part of the area. An upper-level trough axis is noted on water vapor imagery along a position from near 31N67W southwestward to the central Bahamas to west-central Cuba and to the western Caribbean Sea. Overcast multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 18N to 28N between 59W and a line from 28N65W to 20N71W. An ASCAT pass shows moderate to fresh northeast winds west of the trough to the Bahamas and south of 27N. Light to gentle northeast to east winds are west of the trough north of 27N. Gentle to moderate east- southeast winds are east of the trough to 60W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these winds. Lower seas of 3 ft or less are over the northwest part of the discussion area. In the eastern Atlantic, weakening low pressure of 1014 mb is at 20N39W. Broken to overcast mostly low and mid-level clouds exhibiting cyclonic rotation are noted from 19N to 22N between 35W and 39N. Scattered showers are possible with these clouds. Scattered broken low-level clouds rotating cyclonically around the low center are evident from 18N to 21N between 39W and 42W. Isolated showers are possible with these clouds. Seas within the vicinity of the low are 8 ft in north long-period swell as indicated by an overnight altimeter satellite data pass just west of the low. Seas of 8 ft also due to long-period north swell are from 22N to 30N between 35W and 44W. Also in the eastern Atlantic, a rather elongated upper-level low is identified on water vapor imagery near 28N29W. An upper-level trough extends from the low to 17N32W to near 11N32W and to near 07N35W. An area of scattered moderate convection is seen within close proximity of the low from 25N to 28N and between 26W and 32W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up farther southeast north of the Cabo Verde Islands from 20N to 23N between the Western Sahara coast and 24W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front that is presently northwest of the area will merge with a frontal trough that extends from 31N61W to 24N66W and to the eastern Dominican Republic late tonight. The cold front will reach from near 31N58W to 26N65W to eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by Sun morning, then stall and weaken into a trough over the far southeastern part late Sun through Mon night. North swell behind the front will build seas to a peak of about 11 ft over northeast offshore waters by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the front from late Fri through Sun. By late Sun, these winds are expected to be at mainly fresh speeds south of 29N and west of 60W. At that time, fresh to strong west to northwest winds are expected over the far northeast forecast waters along with building seas. Rather tranquil conditions are expected Tue and Tue night as high pressure becomes centered over the NW part of the offshore waters, with the induced gradient supporting fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds over the southern waters. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC261132_C_KWBC_20240426113255_21954772-1168-TWDAT.txt ****0000007318**** AXNT20 KNHC 261132 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Apr 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, and extends south-southwestward to 06N17W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N24W and to just south of the Equator at 01S38W and to 01S37W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 330 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W-33W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 17W-20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is analyzed over the NE Gulf at 29N85W. Its associated broad ridging covers the eastern and central Gulf. A tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure with relatively lower pressure over the western Gulf and inland Mexico and Texas has helped to increase east to southeast winds over the western Gulf to fresh to strong speeds. Mostly fresh east to southeast winds are over the central Gulf and gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are over the eastern Gulf. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft over the NW and w-central Gulf, 4 to 6 ft over the central Gulf and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure over the area is supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the eastern Gulf, mostly fresh east to southeast winds over the central Gulf and fresh to strong southeast winds over the western Gulf. The pressure gradient will continue to tighten resulting in increasing east to southeast fresh to strong winds over just about the entire basin through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak 11 to 12 ft in the NW Gulf Sat night and Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from near 15N70W northward to across the eastern portion of the Dominican Republic continuing farther north well into the Atlantic basin. Overcast to broken multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over most of the central section of the Caribbean and over most of the island of Hispaniola. There is a possibility for heavy rainfall that may result from thunderstorm activity over portions of Hispaniola today, especially in hilly terrain and low-lying areas. Please refer to bulletins from your local weather service offices for more details on this activity. Overnight ASCAT data shows generally depicts fresh to strong northeast to east trade winds over the south-central section of the sea. Moderate to fresh trade winds are over the rest of the sea, except for fresh northeast winds in the lee of Cuba between 77W and 82W as seen in an overnight ASCAT satellite data pass. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea is sustaining fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere, including the Windward Passage. By this evening, strengthening of the high pressure will also force fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal trough is analyzed from 31N61W to 24N66W and to the eastern part of the Dominican Republic, while a cold front is approaching the NW part of the area. An upper-level trough axis is noted on water vapor imagery along a position from near 31N67W southwestward to the central Bahamas, to west-central Cuba and to the western Caribbean Sea. Overcast multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 18N to 28N between 59W and a line from 28N65W to 20N71W. An ASCAT satellite data pass shows moderate to fresh northeast winds west of the trough to the Bahamas and south of 27N. Light to gentle northeast to east winds are west of the trough north of 27N. Gentle to moderate east-southeast winds are east of the trough to 60W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these winds. Lower seas of 3 ft or less are over the northwest part of the discussion area. In the eastern Atlantic, weakening low pressure of 1014 mb is at 20N39W. Broken to overcast mostly low and mid-level clouds exhibiting cyclonic rotation are noted from 19N to 22N between 35W and 39N. Scattered showers are possible with these clouds. Scattered broken low-level clouds rotating cyclonically around the low center are evident from 18N to 21N between 39W and 42W. Isolated showers are possible with these clouds. Seas within the vicinity of the low are 8 ft in north long-period swell as indicated by an overnight altimeter satellite data pass just west of the low. Seas of 8 ft also due to long-period north swell are from 22N to 30N between 35W and 44W. Also in the eastern Atlantic, a rather elongated upper-level low is identified on water vapor imagery near 28N29W. An upper-level trough extends from the low to 17N32W, to 11N32W and to near 07N35W. An area of scattered moderate convection is seen within close proximity of the low from 25N to 28N and between 26W and 32W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up farther southeast north of the Cabo Verde Islands from 20N to 23N between the western Sahara coast and 24W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front that is presently northwest of the area will merge with a frontal trough that extends from 31N61W to 24N66W and to the eastern Dominican Republic late tonight. The cold front will reach from near 31N58W to 26N65W to eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by Sun morning, then stall and weaken into a trough over the far southeastern part late Sun through Mon night. North swell behind the front will build seas to a peak of about 11 ft over northeast offshore waters by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the front from late Fri through Sun. By late Sun, these winds are expected to be at mainly fresh speeds south of 29N and west of 60W. At that time, fresh to strong west to northwest winds are expected over the far northeast forecast waters along with building seas. Rather tranquil conditions are expected Tue and Tue night as high pressure becomes centered over the NW part of the offshore waters, with the induced gradient supporting fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds over the southern waters. $$ Aguirre ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################ --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Message File: T_AXNT20KNHC261757_C_KWBC_20240426175745_37748954-253-TWDAT.txt ****0000006144**** AXNT20 KNHC 261757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Apr 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea Bissau, then runs southwestward to 05N18W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N18W through 02N30W to 03N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the trough from the Equator to 04N between 10W and 17W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present near the ITCZ from 01N to 06N between 20W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge reaches southwestward from northern Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Convergent southerly winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across waters near Corpus Christi, Texas and the Mexican border. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas of 6 to 7 ft are present at the northwestern Gulf. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are found at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh SE winds and 4 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to tighten and cause fresh to strong SE winds to spread over the entire Gulf through Sun night. Seas are expected to peak at 12 ft in the northwestern Gulf Sat night and Sun. Meanwhile, winds will pulse between fresh and strong near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1009 mb low is centered just off northwest Colombia near 10N76W. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring across the waters off eastern Panama and northwestern Colombia. A surface trough runs northeastward from this low to south of Haiti. The southern end of another surface trough is over eastern Hispaniola. Aided by divergent flow aloft, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident near and up to 115 nm northwest of the trough axis, and near Hispaniola. Some of these thunderstorms can produce heavy downpours and gusty winds. Fresh ENE winds and seas at 5 to 6 ft are found at the northwestern basin, including the Yucatan Channel and near the Cayman Islands. Gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the northeastern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin, including the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage. For the forecast, the ridge of high pressure north of the area is going to strengthen further starting tonight. This will cause fresh to strong trade winds in the Gulf of Honduras, lee of Cuba, Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola from Sat night through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal trough extends northeastward from eastern Hispaniola to 31N61W. Interaction with a pronounced deep-layer mid-latitude trough in the vicinity is generating scattered moderate convection from 20N to 25N between 56W and 70W, and north of 25N between 54W and 55W. A weak but distinct 1014 mb low is in the central Atlantic near 19N40W. Further northeast, a surface trough near 22N30W is producing scattered moderate convection from 20N to 29N between 24W and 31W. Convergent trade winds are generating scattered moderate convection from 01N to 04N between 41W and 50W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Tighter gradient between a surface trough over the southeast Bahamas and a ridge near 30N74W is inducing fresh NE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas from 20N to 25N between 68W and the Bahamas. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft dominate the western Atlantic north of 20N between 50W and the Florida-Georgia coast. At the central and eastern Atlantic, a board ridge originating from the Azores High is supporting moderate with locally fresh NNE to ENE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas north of 20N between the Africa coast and 50W, including the Canary Islands. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between the central Africa coast and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh N to ENE trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 4 to 5 ft seas in moderate mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front currently northeast of Florida will merge with the aforementioned frontal trough tonight. Afterward, the front will reach from near 31N58W to eastern Cuba by Sat morning, and from near 25N55W to Hispaniola by Sun morning. The front is expected to stall and weaken into a trough in the central Atlantic near 24N47W late Sun through Mon night. N swell behind this front will cause seas to build near 12 ft north of 28N between 55W and 65W by Sun. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will result in fresh to strong N to NE winds behind the front from late Fri through Sun. By late Sun, fresh winds will prevail south of 29N and west of 60W, while fresh to strong W to NW winds along with building seas are expected north of 27N between 38W and 45W. Rather tranquil conditions are expected Tue as high pressure settles north of the Bahamas near 30N73W, but the induced gradient will induce fresh to strong NE to E winds near the southeast Bahamas, and Turk and Caicos Islands. $$ Chan ########################### END OF MESSAGE SET ############################